Sampling and Estimation and Significance Testing Classrooms
92.1 Introduction to Sampling
Sampling is the process of selecting a subset of individuals from a larger population to make inferences about the entire population. It's often impractical or impossible to study an entire population.
- Population: The entire group of individuals or objects that you want to draw conclusions about.
- Sample: A subset of the population from which data is collected.
- Census: Data collection from every member of the population.
- Sampling Methods: Techniques used to select samples, aiming for representativeness (e.g., random sampling, stratified sampling).
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92.2 Sampling Distributions
A sampling distribution is the probability distribution of a statistic (e.g., sample mean, sample proportion) obtained from a large number of samples drawn from a specific population.
- Central Limit Theorem (CLT): States that the sampling distribution of the sample mean will be approximately normally distributed, regardless of the population distribution, as the sample size increases (typically $n \ge 30$).
- Standard Error: The standard deviation of a sampling distribution. For the sample mean, it's $\sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}$.
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92.3 Sampling Distribution of Means
The sampling distribution of the mean is the distribution of sample means of all possible samples of a given size from a population. According to the CLT, it will be normal if the population is normal, or approximately normal if $n \ge 30$.
- Mean of Sample Means ($\mu_{\bar{x}}$): Equal to the population mean ($\mu$). $$\mu_{\bar{x}} = \mu$$
- Standard Deviation of Sample Means (Standard Error, $\sigma_{\bar{x}}$): $$\sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}$$ where $\sigma$ is the population standard deviation and $n$ is the sample size.
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92.4 Population Parameter Estimation (Large Sample)
For large samples ($n \ge 30$), we can use the Z-distribution to construct confidence intervals for population parameters like the mean, even if the population standard deviation is unknown (using sample standard deviation as an estimate).
- Confidence Interval for Mean (Large Sample): $$\bar{x} \pm Z_{\alpha/2} \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}$$ If $\sigma$ is unknown, use $s$ (sample standard deviation) as an estimate.
- Margin of Error (ME): $Z_{\alpha/2} \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}$
- Z-scores: Values from the standard normal distribution corresponding to a desired confidence level (e.g., $Z_{0.025} = 1.96$ for 95% confidence).
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92.5 Population Mean Estimation (Small Sample)
For small samples ($n < 30$) and when the population standard deviation ($\sigma$) is unknown, we use the t-distribution to construct confidence intervals for the population mean.
- Confidence Interval for Mean (Small Sample): $$\bar{x} \pm t_{\alpha/2, df} \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}$$ where $s$ is the sample standard deviation and $df = n-1$ are the degrees of freedom.
- T-distribution: A probability distribution similar to the normal distribution but with heavier tails, used for small sample sizes.
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93.1 Hypotheses
Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is most often used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses, that arise from theories.
- Null Hypothesis ($H_0$): A statement of no effect or no difference. It is the statement that the researcher is trying to disprove.
- Alternative Hypothesis ($H_1$ or $H_a$): A statement that there is an effect or a difference. It is the claim that the researcher is trying to prove.
- One-tailed Test: The alternative hypothesis specifies a direction (e.g., $H_1: \mu > 0$ or $H_1: \mu < 0$).
- Two-tailed Test: The alternative hypothesis does not specify a direction (e.g., $H_1: \mu \neq 0$).
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93.2 Type I & Type II Errors
In hypothesis testing, there's always a risk of making an incorrect decision. These errors are classified as Type I and Type II.
- Type I Error ($\alpha$): Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (false positive).
- Probability of Type I Error = Significance Level ($\alpha$)
- Type II Error ($\beta$): Failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is actually false (false negative).
- Probability of Type II Error = $\beta$
- Power of the Test = $1 - \beta$ (the probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis).
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93.3 Population Mean Tests
We use hypothesis tests to determine if a sample mean is significantly different from a hypothesized population mean.
- Z-test for Mean: Used when population standard deviation ($\sigma$) is known or sample size ($n$) is large ($n \ge 30$). $$Z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}$$
- T-test for Mean: Used when population standard deviation ($\sigma$) is unknown and sample size ($n$) is small ($n < 30$). $$t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt{n}}$$ with $df = n-1$.
- P-value approach: Compare the p-value to the significance level ($\alpha$). If $p < \alpha$, reject $H_0$.
- Critical value approach: Compare the test statistic to the critical value(s). If the test statistic falls in the rejection region, reject $H_0$.
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93.4 Comparing Two Sample Means
We use hypothesis tests to determine if there is a significant difference between the means of two independent samples.
- Two-Sample Z-test: Used when both population standard deviations are known or both sample sizes are large ($n_1, n_2 \ge 30$). $$Z = \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2) - (\mu_1 - \mu_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{\sigma_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{\sigma_2^2}{n_2}}}$$
- Two-Sample T-test: Used when population standard deviations are unknown and sample sizes are small. Requires assuming equal or unequal population variances. $$t = \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2) - (\mu_1 - \mu_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{s_p^2}{n_1} + \frac{s_p^2}{n_2}}}$$ (for pooled variance $s_p^2$, assuming equal variances)
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